California nearly guaranteed to get major earthquake in next 30 years | Emergency Preparedness | Forums

I thought this was a given

LOS ANGELES -- The probability California will experience a magnitude 8 or larger earthquake in the next couple of decades has increased, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

CBS San Francisco reported the Third Uniform California Rupture Forecast, or UCERF3, sheds new light on where earthquakes will likely hit in California over the next couple of decades and how big they're expected to be.

"The new likelihoods are due to the inclusion of possible multi-fault ruptures, where earthquakes are no longer confined to separate, individual faults, but can occasionally rupture multiple faults simultaneously," said lead author and USGS scientist Ned Field. "This is a significant advancement in terms of representing a broader range of earthquakes throughout California's complex fault system."

Compared to the 2008 assessment, earthquakes around magnitude 6.7 -- the size of the destructive 1994 Northridge quake -- has gone down by 30 percent with a frequency from an average of one per 4.8 years to about one per 6.3 years.

The study also says the likelihood that California will experience a magnitude 8 or larger earthquake in the next 30 years has gone up from about 4.7 percent to about 7 percent.

One particularly ready fault is the Southern San Andreas, which geologists have long believed will be most likely to host a large earthquake.

http://www.cbsnews.c.....-30-years/