H1N1 Pandemic next year? Thoughts? | Emergency Preparedness | Forums

there is a large amount of deaths happening being reported due to the H1N1 virus right now

27 in north carolina

http://www.wral.com/...../13304715/

it is spreading into Canada

http://www.cmaj.ca/s.....cern.xhtml

17 in SF

http://www.sfgate.co.....141467.php

Texas is over 30 now

http://www.myfoxdfw......ted-deaths

and our own HFF is recovering from it

it is hitting middle aged relatively healthy people with strong immune systems, not the older generation which a normal flue does, the reason being

A strong immune system ends up going too far in its efforts to stop the virus and kills the person by mistake. Fever is a self defense mechanism of your body trying to kill the virus. A lot of disease cannot survive in a host that is a few degrees hotter than normal, so fever is one of your immune systems go to moves.

been researching the 1918 pandemic

there were three waves, a small first one, followed by a huge second spike

1919 it spread like crazy, now ww1 had a lot to do with the spread of it, but in todays modern world, it can spread even faster with modern transportation modes.

I found this as well on the wiki page

An unusual feature of this pandemic was that it mostly killed young adults, with 99% of pandemic influenza deaths occurring in people under 65, and more than half in young adults 20 to 40 years old.[47] This is noteworthy, since influenza is normally most deadly to weak individuals, such as infants (under age two), the very old (over age 70), and the immunocompromised. In 1918, older adults may have had partial protection caused by exposure to the 1889–1890 flu pandemic, known as the Russian flu.[48] According to historian John M. Barry, the most vulnerable of all – "those most likely, of the most likely", to die – were pregnant women. He reported that in thirteen studies of hospitalized women in the pandemic, the death rate ranged from 23% to 71%. Of the pregnant women who survived childbirth, over one-quarter (26%) lost the child.[49]

Another oddity was that the outbreak was widespread in the summer and autumn (in the Northern Hemisphere); influenza is usually worse in winter.[50]

Modern analysis has shown the virus to be particularly deadly because it triggers a cytokine storm, which ravages the stronger immune system of young adults.[11]

In fast-progressing cases, mortality was primarily from pneumonia, by virus-induced pulmonary consolidation. Slower-progressing cases featured secondary bacterial pneumonias, and there may have been neural involvement that led to mental disorders in some cases. Some deaths resulted from malnourishment.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic

scientists have been saying a pandemic is long overdue and the era of antibiotics are coming to a end

A high-ranking official with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has declared in an interview with PBS that the age of antibiotics has come to an end.

'For a long time, there have been newspaper stories and covers of magazines that talked about "The end of antibiotics, question mark?"' said Dr Arjun Srinivasan. 'Well, now I would say you can change the title to "The end of antibiotics, period.”'

The associate director of the CDC sat down with Frontline over the summer for a lengthy interview about the growing problem of antibacterial resistance.

Srinivasan, who is also featured in a Frontline report called 'Hunting the Nightmare Bacteria,' which aired Tuesday, said that both humans and livestock have been overmedicated to such a degree that bacteria are now resistant to antibiotics.

‘We're in the post-antibiotic era,' he said. 'There are patients for whom we have no therapy, and we are literally in a position of having a patient in a bed who has an infection, something that five years ago even we could have treated, but now we can’t.’.

Dr Srinivasan offered an example of this notion, citing the recent case of three Tampa Bay Buccaneers players who made headlines after reportedly contracting potentially deadly MRSA infections, which until recently were largely restricted to hospitals.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2477273/Weve-reached-end-antibiotics-Top-CDC-expert-declares-miracle-drugs-saved-millions-match-superbugs-people-overmedicated-themselves.html

is this creating the perfect storm for the next couple years?