Are we going to war with russia? | The Compost Bin | Forums

I don't think it happens, not even close.

The U.S., and western Europe have a geopolitical interest in maintaining influence in the eastern block. Crimea is a hot area, always has and always will be. Crimea - strategically speaking - is Russia's first target in expansion due to the naval implications, and second would be in the Baltic, most likely Poland for Gdansk if then it would be Istanbul for Med access.

The U.S posturing is to show Russia, no we have not forgotten history, we will flex our influence in the Crimean peninsula. For Russia it is just to beat their chest. Putin's moves are NOT popular amongst Russians.

The billion bucks is a loan guarantee, not a check. It is part of the posturing. The U.S. and western Europe want to be allied with the Ukraine.

Anyways, it is all posturing. The world is way to economically integrated for another world war, and Russia doesn't have the military power to invade the US. Their only hope would be to have a military victory defending itself against US invasion which is very unlikely.

I personally would like to see the Ukraine integrated into western Europe.

The real scary part for myself watching this unfold is the IMF talking about conditional lending. They will bring back an ESAF type program, and the "structural adjustment" will put the Ukraine into an everlasting debt trap.

Russia - in the case of war with the U.S. - would have to go at it alone, with no allies aside from maybe North Korea and Iran. China, while they like to talk will do little. Without the U.S. and its allies as trade partners China's brittle economy will crumble. They will lose most exports, which they do need.