Five Top VCs Predict The Future | The Compost Bin | Forums

Wonder how many are accurate

Robocars, the hyperloop and universal broadband are nearly here – or so some top venture capitalists think.

On Thursday night, five of the world’s best-known venture capitalists each went to bat for two trends they think will be the most explosive over the next five years, but aren’t overly obvious. The 17th annual top 10 tech trends dinner in San Jose hosted by the Churchill Club featured Jenny Lee of GGV Capital, Steve Jurvetson of Draper Fisher Jurvetson, Rebecca Lynn of Canvas Venture Fund, Bill Gurley of Benchmark Partners and Shervin Pishevar of Sherpa Ventures. FORBES publisher, Rich Karlgaard, and our managing editor of tech, Bruce Upbin, moderated the panel.

Here are some of the technologies shimmering in the VCs’ crystal ball:

1. On-demand ambient computing. Shervin Pishevar

Before we know it, apps driven by artificial intelligence will predict our needs and make decisions for us, for example, where we want to go in an Uber, and when we want to arrive somewhere if our flight is delayed, said Pishevar, who is an investor in Uber.

Pishevar: “What you’ll see is services that will be able to predict what you want before you even express it. The power of invisible computing is this merger of the on-demand world that we’re seeing and the automation.”

2. Traditional banks will keep losing share to startups while bitcoin fades. Rebecca Lynn

Startups will continue to fill the shoes of banks, but may not offer certain services, such as back-end infrastructure. Also, volatility and transaction costs will help cause bitcoin to fade in the next five years, even though bitcoin is “really compelling.”

Lynn: “It’s pretty obvious that banks are inefficient and not so great at serving customers, and it’s better done by fast, nimble startups.” But, “banks aren’t going to go away.”

Gurley: “Our banking system is the most corrupt industry in the U.S. political system and has the most control over policy. I’m skeptical that the U.S. government will stop protecting the banks, which they’ve been doing for 40, 50 years.”

3. The virtual me. Jenny Lee

Hardware and sensors will gather our data and build a personal profile about us. By 2020, 50 billion items will be connected to the web.

Lee: “I hope that someday, someone will tell me what I want to do, or what I want to buy.”

Gurley: ”I just think humans don’t want to be tracked that much. They don’t want to be told they could lose some weight. If you start tracking these things, and they start telling you what you should do, most people would put them in the drawer.”

4. The Skynet economy. Steve Jurvetson

Low-altitude satellites will give affordable broadband access to the unconnected billions. 16-GB-a-second Internet access will equally cover the world and profoundly expand opportunities for people in developing economies.

Lee: ”I do believe that the globe has to be connected. Wishing for it is part of making it come true.”

Lynn suggested issues like making clean water universally available should be addressed first.

5. The end of the auto nation. Bill Gurley

The U.S. designed cities around individual car ownership, and the result has been inefficiency, deaths and pollution. U.S. cars are on average idle 96% of the time, which is about $15 trillion in capital assets not used, said Gurley, an Uber investor.

Gurley: “We may have hit what’s called peak car. Kids aren’t showing up on their 16th birthday to get a driver’s license. The smartphone is more of a social status than a car is.”

Lynn: “Millennials might not be buying cars because they don’t have jobs. I have a Tesla, and I love it so much. I can’t imagine not having it.”

6. The fifth mode of transportation. Shervin Pishevar

Technologies such as the hyperloop and massive drones that can land and take off on water will transform the transportation of people and things, said Pishevar, who has invested in Hyperloop Technologies Inc.

Pishevar: “Things like the hyperloop are much more simple than most people imagine. The [California] high-speed rail won’t be completed until Elon reaches Mars.”

Jurvetson: “I like the idea, I just don’t think it’s going to clear the regulatory minefield.”

Gurley: “It’s as ballsy of a bet as you can make in the venture industry. I mean that in a positive way.”

7. The reemergence of women in tech. Rebecca Lynn

In the next 5 years, half of computer science students will become women, which will lead to more female founders and CEOs.

Lynn: “As a woman, you don’t really want to be the woman VC. You just want to be the good VC.”

Lynn noted that in areas of engineering outside of computer science, many more students are female. “I don’t think it’s a STEM issue.” She said the early prevalence of personal computer shooter and war games has left little to interest girls in software. ”Instead of killing people, you need to be helping animals,” she said. “It’s the best personal work-life balance job you could have — my friends who code in Hawaii versus my friends who are lawyers.”

8. The economy of me. Jenny Lee

By 2020, commerce and services will fundamentally shift to being online and global. In the next five years, the number of people on the mobile internet will double, forming the “personal economy.” Brick and motor will be obsolete.

Lee: “The retail part where retail is so location-based, that’s all going to go away. I like to call it the ‘lazy me.’”

9. The rise of robocars (the audience-voted winner of the night). Steve Jurvetson

Jurvetson: “For those of us who have a chance to be in one, you’ll never go back. I believe they are already safer than my parents.” Initially they will run at speeds of 25 mph or less in urban settings, he said.

Jurvetson said Uber CEO Travis Kalanick told him that if Tesla cars are autonomous by 2020, Kalanick wants to buy all 500,000 that are expected to be produced.

10. The native mobile application platform will continue to dominate the mobile Web. Bill Gurley

Gurley said smartphones will be the remote control of our life. “The browser and search are kind of like a platform, and that platform is finally maturing,” he said.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kathleenchaykowski/2015/05/22/five-top-vcs-predict-the-future/